The second part of this article can be found here..
Intelligence agencies and major US media, The New York Times and The Washington Post, are convinced that President Vladimir Putin wants to occupy part of Ukraine. As reported by the New York Times (NYT), US intelligence officials have warned allies that little time is left to prevent Russia from taking military action in Ukraine. The European media and the intelligence community are speaking in a similar vein. The situation is serious. What game does the "Russian chess master" play?
Putin began gathering troops on the border with Ukraine. On the pages of military portals one can see, and even count the Russian tanks at their positions on satellite photos. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin commented on these reports:
Americans are not sure what Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning. We are watching this very closely and I am in regular contact with General (Tod) Wolters, who heads the European Command.
The conclusion presented by the NYT is terrifying:
Russia has not yet decided what it intends to do with the troops it has gathered near Ukraine, but their concentration is being taken seriously. The United States does not assume Putin is bluffing.
The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said that although he does not know what the Kremlin's intentions are, he warns Russia against trying to repeat the Ukrainian invasion. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said in a special speech that about 100,000 Russian soldiers had gathered at the Ukrainian border. The head of the CIA, Bill Burns, appeared in Moscow, and a few days later, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with the Secretary of National Security, Nikolai Patrushev. Does Putin want more than he negotiated with President Biden in Geneva?
Biden has agreed to allow the completion of Nord Stream 2 [natural gas pipeline -ed.]. In Europe, and, what we are most interested in, in Central and Eastern Europe, coal mines are closing down, which will most likely result in energy shortages already this winter. Germany will become the distributor of the energy for the whole of Europe transmitted via Nord Stream from Russia.
Thus, the construction of the strategic Germany-Russia partnership is reaching its apogee. For the favor of not supporting China, Biden gave this partnership a free hand in European politics. But is that enough for Putin? Donbass is a very important region in terms of energy. So it should be within Russia, Putin probably thinks.
Publicizing the problem of emigrants on the border with Poland is only a smokescreen for a real test for NATO, i.e. an attempt to take Donbas away from Ukraine. What will NATO do if Putin annexes the Donbass? Was Trump's harsh rhetoric about insufficient investment in the alliance pertinent? The games Brussels plays with the reforms in NATO seem to have been drowned in wine. Now this bureaucratic project is being tested and has been played by Putin for a long time.
In the winter, Europeans will be too busy asking Putin to turn on the Nord Stream taps at last, because they are cold. Nobody will think to lift a finger when the "Russian chess player" takes Donbass. All Europeans will be grateful that they have hot water in the tap.
The EU Summit in Lahti, Finland. Polish president Lech Kaczyński and Russian president Vladimir Putin (Source: Twitter)
So, let's summarize, after the late Lech Kaczyński: "Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, and then maybe it's time for my country."
The text originally appeared in «Tygodnik Solidarność».
The second part of this article can be found here..
Translation from Polish by Andrew Woźniewicz.
