The Fall of the Russian Empire

The Inevitable Crisis?

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Some people believe that there will be no Russian Federation in a few years. According to this concept, no matter who sits in the White House, it will not stop the collapse of the rotten empire and its ossified foundations.

Let us recall that this has already happened before. The fall and disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, sealed by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the unification of Germany, is a telling example from the not-so-distant history.

USA or Europe?

Is Russia's fate really decided by Europe or the United States? The United States certainly plays a significant role in geopolitical pressure on Russia, limiting and opposing its influence. However, it does so in a rather chaotic manner. On the other hand, Europe, closer to Russia geographically, economically, and, let's call it, emotionally, has a more, let's say, differentiated approach to policy towards that country.

The US, now under the Biden administration, has been the main architect of sanctions policy towards Russia, partly since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and more specifically — albeit slowly and somewhat incompetently — since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. American military and political support for Ukraine and anti-Putin rhetoric have positioned the US as a leader in the pressure on Moscow. Yet US actions have often come across as passive rather than courageous. Different administrations have also differed in their approach to Russia policy — from naive attempts to reset relations (Obama), to contradictory and controversial carrot-and-stick moves and admiration for Putin as a leader (Trump), to harsh sanctions and isolation, but carefully controlled and restrained (Biden).

"Polis na Komendantsky", the largest residential building in Russia, which is located in the fastest growing district of Primorye in St. Petersburg. This absurdly massive skyscraper has 20 entrances and 6,313 apartments. Almost 20,000 people live here. (Source: Quora)

The European Union formally supports sanctions and condemns Russia’s military aggression. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has repeatedly addressed the issue of countering Russia in recent months, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine. She also recently admitted that the EU should have listened earlier to the voices of Central European countries such as Poland and the Baltic states, which have been warning against Russia’s imperialist ambitions for years.

However, within the continent there are still countries that have historically focused on pragmatic relations with Moscow (e.g. Germany and France). Countries such as Portugal, Italy, or Greece, or even Germany, which are not triggered by the hot breath of a Siberian bear on their neck, have less of an interest in countering Moscow's influence and much more of an interest in ensuring that the money from Russian oligarchs continues to flow in a rapid stream. There are also countries such as Hungary, Slovakia, or Serbia, whose governments openly support Russia's actions.

For Europe, the stakes are the stability of the continent and energy security, but this does not necessarily make its actions more systematic, coherent and thoughtful. According to Professor Andrew Michta, "the West is economically powerful, but politically weak at the moment, divided."

False dichotomy

The narrative of Russia’s fate as a confrontation between the influence of the United States and Europe is based on the assumption that it is the West alone, in its two pillars, that determines Russia’s political and economic condition. However, limiting ourselves to this opposition is an oversimplification. Such thinking ignores a number of other key factors—both internal and external—that may ultimately determine Russia’s future.

  • Regime Stability: Power in Russia, concentrated around one person — Vladimir Putin — relies on a mix of repression, propaganda, and legitimization based on military successes and anti-Western policies. Internal social tensions, economic discontent, and conflicts within the ruling elite could lead to a power crisis that would change the course of Russian policy regardless of external pressure.
  • Demographic crisis: High emigration of young Russians, population decline, and lack of social reforms are leading to serious demographic problems that could weaken Russia in the long term, more than external sanctions.
  • State of the economy: Dependence on energy resources means that Russia's future depends on economic modernization. If Russia does not make structural reforms, its position will weaken even without additional pressure from the US or Europe.
  • China: Russia is increasingly cooperating with China, which means that its future may depend on Chinese interests. However, this partnership is asymmetric — Russia is becoming a junior partner, which may mean its gradual political and economic dependence on Beijing and determine the future shape of Moscow's policy.
  • India and the Global South: Russia is actively developing relations with countries such as India, Iran and Brazil, looking for an alternative to Western markets. This shows that Russia's future may be linked to the markets of the Global South, regardless of the influence of the US and Europe.
  • International conflicts and the war in Ukraine: The war in Ukraine is a key factor in determining Russia's position. If Russia loses militarily and politically, the changes could be far-reaching, leading to a weakening of the regime or even a change of power. However, the outcome of the conflict also depends on Ukraine, its allies, and Russia's own ability to withstand years of military and economic pressure.
  • Technology and digital isolation: Russia’s future also depends on its ability to maintain technological competitiveness. Western sanctions have limited Russia's access to modern technologies, but the development of Russia’s IT sector, cyber military, and cooperation with China and India in technology could help rebuild the sector.

Russian Empire

Russia's imperialism is about expanding its sphere of influence, controlling neighboring states — inevitably against their will — and re-establishing its position as a great power, both through military and political action.

The concept of the "Russian world" (also "Russian peace", русский мир) is used as a tool to legitimize Russia's expansionist actions. It assumes that Russia has a cultural, civilizational and spiritual mission to defend "traditional values" against the "corrupted West". According to this narrative, Russia has a special right to influence the fate of the former USSR countries - including Poland - and to restore "historical unity".

Russia also justifies its imperial actions with a narrative of protecting Russians and Russian-speaking people outside Russia. The Kremlin claims that it has an obligation to “defend” Russians in Ukraine, the Baltic states, and Central Asia, even if these actions violate international law.

Images from Russian life. Running water is a luxury - in 2024, about 30 million Russians did not have access to running water in their homes [wPolityce]. (Photo: Quora)

Russia has expanded its territory for centuries, conquering neighboring nations, including Siberia, the Caucasus, Poland, and the Baltic states. The goal was to create an empire stretching from Europe to the Pacific, or, as Russia’s former figurehead president Medvedev used to say, from Vladivostok to Lisbon. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and support for separatists in Donbas were just a prelude to a full-blown invasion of Ukraine.

Aside from the Ukraine, the political leadership of the Russian Federation does not hide its ambitions towards Georgia, Moldova, the Baltic countries, and finally Poland, not to mention Belarus. Supporting pro-Russian politicians and political destabilization are elements of "soft" imperialism, and Russia has repeatedly used the military to impose its will on "rebellious" regions.

What Kind of Russia?

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia — and Putin in particular — saw the loss of influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia as its greatest geopolitical defeat. Vladimir Putin’s policies are an attempt to rebuild Russia’s position as a superpower that opposes the West. Russian propaganda often portrays the West as an aggressor that is trying to “weaken Russia.”

All previous attempts to transform the Russian Federation into a nation state, a civic state, or even a stable empire have failed. The current structure rests on fragile historical foundations, lacks a unified national identity – civic or ethnic – and is torn by internal struggles between nationalists, imperialists, centralists, liberals, and federalists. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and devastating economic sanctions have accelerated the processes leading to the disintegration of this entity.

Russia is being submerged by economic stagnation, huge socio-economic inequalities, demographic deficits, and a growing gap between Moscow and St. Petersburg, versus the remaining regions. The pyramid of power based on personalism and clientelism is crumbling under the weight of corruption and growing distrust of government institutions. Society is becoming increasingly alienated from the corrupt elite of power, and the propaganda that creates an artificial reality is losing its power of influence - albeit very slowly.

To maintain the integrity of the state, the authorities are resorting to increasingly brutal repression, but the economic situation will deteriorate due to sanctions — if they are maintained — the so-called "Dutch disease", lack of innovation and diversification, the process of reverse industrialization, the growing budget deficit, the collapse of the ruble, and the shortage/exodus of trained personnel. All of this increases the risk of violent internal and external conflicts.

Paradoxically, Vladimir Putin, when he took power, was supposed to prevent the disintegration of Russia, but he may go down in history as the one who hastened its end. As Moscow loses credibility and the country descends into chaos, new territorial entities will emerge. They will differ in political and administrative structures. Border and territorial conflicts will inevitably break out between them, although some may be united by the idea of ​​a new federation or confederation.

Pictures of life in Russia (Source: Quora)

Russia's imperialism is about trying to rebuild its global power position through military power, political control over its neighbors, historical narratives, and economic dependence on other states. Russia's contemporary actions are often justified by the need to "restore its former greatness," but in reality they lead to escalation of conflicts and isolation of the country on the international stage. In this context, the war in Ukraine is a clear example of a contemporary manifestation of Russian imperialism that provokes global opposition and sanctions.

Simulated Democracy and De Facto Authoritarianism

Russia is de facto an autocracy bordering on totalitarianism. The process of transition to full totalitarianism is not yet complete only because society has not yet been sufficiently mobilized and subjected to propaganda to the extent that remnants of freedom still exist. Putin's regime resembles more a truly Byzantine, hierarchical pyramid of mafia dependence than a modern federation with decentralization and local autonomy. Today's State Duma, under normal conditions a stronghold of legislative power, does not resemble a parliament - it is merely a tool in Putin's hands, implementing his will, with the appearance of an opposition.

Putin's rule is not a project of the future – it is an archaic vision of the past forced upon contemporary citizens as part of a new imperial narrative. But terror can be an effective tool in the hands of autocrats. "When the government fears the people, there is freedom. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny," Thomas Jefferson is supposed to have said. In Russia, people are definitely afraid of the government – ​​they are afraid to stand out.

Russian society has repeatedly demonstrated its passivity, high adaptability to difficult conditions, and lack of mass rebellions, even in the face of repression and a deterioration in the quality of life. The potential for a potential rebellion in Russia is not great, as many citizens are still loyal to the government, which limits the risk of destabilization. This is because Russia conducts extensive propaganda activities, presenting itself as a victim of "Western aggression" and promoting anti-Western narratives. Russians, for the most part, believe that they are a privileged, God-chosen nation, never-conquered and invincible.

Although the Russian army suffered losses in Ukraine, the country still has the resources and technology to rebuild its combat capabilities. In the past, Russia has emerged relatively unscathed from military defeats (such as after the Crimean War or World War I) and has been able to rebuild its potential.

Russia still has political and economic influence in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Support from China, Iran, and other non-Western countries allows it to create alternative trade channels and bypass many sanctions.

Despite ethnic and regional diversity, Russia has maintained strong centralization for decades, thanks to its powerful law enforcement and military. The risk of secession by regions such as Chechnya, Tatarstan, and Yakutia is real, but Russia has the means to crush such movements in their infancy.

An ordinary apartment building in Russia (Source: Elena Gold/Quora)

History shows that authoritarian regimes can survive much longer than expected because they are able to maintain tight control over society, even in the face of economic and social crises. Russia seems to have a security apparatus and propaganda system strong enough to stop the process of state disintegration for at least the next decade.

Reports of Putin’s imminent fall are nothing new. For example, in 2025, the prestigious Foreign Affairs published an article titled “Goodbye, Putin: Why the President’s Days Are Numbered.” However, the collapse of a state requires an alternative political force capable of taking power. Currently, Russia lacks a strong and organized opposition that could coordinate secessionist movements or lead the process of rebuilding the state after the collapse.

Is the End Inevitable?

Many, however, claim that the war with Ukraine is already lost. Putin is supposedly a political corpse on the stage of history. The fate of the Russian Federation was supposedly finally sealed, and the only question that remains is how its fall will proceed and how many Russian men will survive its final consequences. Another key question is how much infrastructure and food will remain after the empire falls.

Is this process already irreversible? Whether, for example, the Trump administration will be able to snatch Ukraine's defeat from the jaws of its victory and thus change the course of history, time will tell. Russia in its current form is a hopeless project, but no one knows how much longer its agony will last. Let us recall that the Soviet Union — an equally hopeless project — survived for over 70 years and cost millions of people their lives.

Despite economic sanctions, Russia still controls vast reserves of oil, gas, and strategic raw materials that provide a minimal level of economic stability. Demand for these raw materials could increase, especially in non-European countries, providing Russia with sources of income to mitigate the effects of the crisis.

Neither Europe nor the US needs Russia in its current form (energy blackmail no longer works), and Russia no longer has the means to defend itself. No tanks in reserve, a general lack of modern armament production, helpless and frightened soldiers – poor peasants sent to the front in the name of a sick imperial vision. All that remains is the so-called hybrid war, i.e. active sabotage, such as cutting submarine communication and energy cables.

Russia could also evolve into a North Korean-style state, where isolation and internal mobilization allow the regime to survive for decades. Through control over information and repression of the opposition, Moscow can continue to govern in an authoritarian style without the risk of internal disintegration.

No matter what President Trump or anyone else does, Russia has lost. Today, one can only influence the shape of this process, not the final outcome. But how long will it all take and what will be the effect on ordinary people?




Sources/Bibliography:


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