Outside the Polish parliament and outside the mainstream media, there is an ongoing debate about Poland's security, such as the one between Prof. Bogdan Góralczyk and Marek Budzisz from "Strategy & Future” on “Direction: Conflict? Who will win in the great clash of powers?”
In another debate, "Extreme scenario. Within 3-5 years, Poland may be at risk of war with Russia," Andrew Michta argued to Poles that security should be the most important priority for Poland's strategy. Jacek Bartosiak and many other experts from outside the official establishment repeat the same thing.
I would like to remind you that Russia's foreign policy accuses us of: "ensuring complete domination in the region by taking control of the countries located between Warsaw and Moscow and pushing Russia out of Europe", as former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wrote in "Rossiyskaya Gazeta", and his message was reinforced, in a similar style, by many statements of other Russian politicians.
The head of the National Security Office, Jacek Siewiera, assesses the opinion of the German Council on Foreign Relations expressed in a report which states that "Western countries have 5 to 9 years left to prepare to repel Russia's attack." However, as Siewiera says: "the time frame presented by German analysts is too optimistic." He goes on to say: "If we want to avoid war, the NATO countries on the eastern flank should adopt a shorter, 3-year time horizon to prepare for confrontation."
Spending on the Polish army reached approximately 6%. GDP, which is the third largest arms budget in the world. However, a few days ago, Putin signed the budget for 2024. It shows that one third of all expenses will be directed to maintaining the army and the arms industry. Poland should definitely accelerate the modernization of its army. We know that the President of the Republic of Poland, Andrzej Duda, has submitted a draft bill giving a new shape to the Polish armed forces. It was submitted at the end of the previous term of office of the Sejm. So the situation is tense. A strange game is taking place at the highest levels of the state, reminiscent of the story from Jan Brzechwa's poem entitled "Fish, Frogs and Crayfish". Here is an excerpt: "Consider for yourselves, especially since the fish cried only to pretend, the frogs cried to make believe, and the crawfish cried for nothing."
State security policy should be of a non-partisan nature and be separated from party politics. I would like to remind you that next year there will be elections in the United States that may upend the political table. According to the Wall Street Journal, the poll results in the Republican party are currently as follows: Donald Trump 59%, Nikki Haley 15%, Ron DeSantis 14%. The debate in Alabama was extremely heated with Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy's continued attack on Nikki Haley. So everything indicates that Donald Trump will be the GOP candidate for President of the United States.
In the American debate, the war in Ukraine, with the actions of the Congress and the Senate, is aimed at freezing this conflict and shifting financial resources to a potential conflict with China and supporting Israel in the event of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
In Biden-Trump polls, Trump's advantage is visible in swing states such as: Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, except for Wisconsin, where Biden still has a minimal advantage. Across the United States, according to Fox News, the polls are: 50% for Trump and 46% for Biden. So, before the holidays, everything indicates that Donald Trump may become the US president in 2024.
Voters in the United States increasingly perceive Joe Biden as a weak president whom America's enemies are trying to play at every turn. From China to Venezuela, to the BRICS countries, Asia and Africa, everyone, everywhere is trying to marginalize America. In addition, there is the crisis on the southern border of the United States, the rapidly growing crime rate and the decline of America's largest cities, whose centers increasingly resemble the slums of third world countries. The helplessness of President Biden and Kamala Harris, who is directly responsible for the situation on the southern border, will be the proverbial nail in the coffin in the presidential elections.
The last positive aspect of this Biden term - US foreign policy - is slowly starting to slide down a slippery slope. We don't know what Donald Trump could promise Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Our national interest requires Polish diplomacy to take seriously the construction of the Intermarium project. This requires coordinated actions in the area of the Intermarium countries, Scandinavia and the deep south, including Turkey. If we continue to behave like little boys in shorts, we may find ourselves in Russia's "near abroad" zone, where we will have nothing to say because others will do it for us. The March Biden-Scholz talks, conducted one-on-one, probably gave Germany a free hand to pursue its policy in Europe. So let's act quickly, but carefully, because the situation may not be so favorable for us next year.
In my opinion, President Duda should dust off this famous round table and, once again, there should be a cross-party compromise on state security. After the reform of the army, the matters of secret services and Polish diplomacy should be addressed in the same way. Currently, as Poland, we have no influence on what is being said in Washington, even though we have a 10-million-strong diaspora in the US that could have a real impact on American policy.
So let's organize conferences about Intermarium, promote business and infrastructure projects. Let's present and promote large projects, especially CPK (Centralny Port Komunikacyjny, Central Transportation Port), Via Carpatia, Via Baltica, let's organize expert debates around them. Let's build Polish think tanks and Polish lobbies in countries that are strategic to us. However, this requires cross-party politics and uniting all Poles. Such an opportunity for Poland comes once every 300 years. Let's build a strong state, a strong economy and let's address Pax Polonica to everyone - Let's finally build a Polish narrative of a country of solidarity and love of freedom.
Translation from Polish by Andrew Woźniewicz.